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This afternoon (March 5, 2026) at 4:15 p.m. EST, Costco will hold its Q2 2026 earnings call. We dug into the possible mentions in the Kalshi market and used our earnings call tool to help us evaluate how we think this market might turn out.
Here’s what we’re thinking, along with some context to help you come to conclusions of your own.
The words in play:
Inflation. Membership. Expansion. Kirkland. Renewal. Inventory. Revenue. Tariff. Holiday. Labor. Spending. Dividend. Hot Dog. Automation. Valuation.
Costco’s mention market for the earnings call today is an interesting one. While we think there are still some mispricings, as you can see below, the odds for a majority of the words sit at above 90%.
We attribute this, in part, to the remarkable consistency of mentions in past Costco earnings calls.
Inflation, Membership, Expansion, Kirkland, and Inventory are all frequently mentioned, and you can probably pick up some pennies on these if you’d like.
Tariff also sits at a high likelihood, with the recent Supreme Court decision striking down Trump’s emergency tariffs on February 20, 2026 and Costco’s active lawsuit providing catalysts for the mention.
Take a look at the counts from previous earnings calls for the mentions at play:
