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This afternoon (March 5, 2026) at 4:15 p.m. EST, Costco will hold its Q2 2026 earnings call. We dug into the possible mentions in the Kalshi market and used our earnings call tool to help us evaluate how we think this market might turn out.
Here’s what we’re thinking, along with some context to help you come to conclusions of your own.
The words in play:
Inflation. Membership. Expansion. Kirkland. Renewal. Inventory. Revenue. Tariff. Holiday. Labor. Spending. Dividend. Hot Dog. Automation. Valuation.
Costco’s mention market for the earnings call today is an interesting one. While we think there are still some mispricings, as you can see below, the odds for a majority of the words sit at above 90%.
We attribute this, in part, to the remarkable consistency of mentions in past Costco earnings calls.
Inflation, Membership, Expansion, Kirkland, and Inventory are all frequently mentioned, and you can probably pick up some pennies on these if you’d like.
Tariff also sits at a high likelihood, with the recent Supreme Court decision striking down Trump’s emergency tariffs on February 20, 2026 and Costco’s active lawsuit providing catalysts for the mention.
Take a look at the counts from previous earnings calls for the mentions at play:
Now, we think that NOs on Automation and Valuation seem pretty good.
Although Costco has invested in technology such as AI-powered pharmacy inventory, self-checkout prescan technology, and AI tools in the gas business, we think there is a solid chance the word automation is avoided even if it is discussed indirectly.
Costco President and CEO Ron Vachris used the following language on their Q1 FY2026 earnings call when discussing their implementation of AI:
AI is also being interwoven into our business where we believe it can strengthen our model. Again, we're approaching it in a very Costco way, practical, member-focused and grounded in tangible business value. An early use case has involved integrating AI into our pharmacy inventory system. This system now compares prescription drug pricing across vendors and autonomously and predictively reorders inventory, improving our in-stocks to more than 98%.
This change has played an important role in helping us achieve mid-teen growth in pharmacy scrips filled and has improved margins while lowering prices to our members. We're now in the process of deploying AI tools in our gas business, which we expect will improve inventory management and drive incremental sales by ensuring we are always delivering the best value to our members.
These are just a few of the use cases we're developing into our business as we speak. While digital and technology will play an important role in our future, our people are what makes Costco special. I'd like to recognize the outstanding work done by our more than 340,000 employees around the world. Their commitment to our company and the Costco experience for our members is what drives our success.
We think their emphasis on people and employees contributes to the case that they will avoid the word “automation” even if they are discussing the process of automation. Instead, they may use words like “technology,” “AI,” “prescan,” “digital,” or “efficiency,” rather than the word "automation."
Regarding valuation, Costco management historically avoids commenting on their own stock valuation. This is standard practice for public company executives, as valuation discussion is typically the domain of analysts and investors, not company representatives. Plus, discussion of it by a company representative could be seen as forward-looking guidance on stock price.
Regarding dividend, even though Costco just declared a regular quarterly cash dividend in January, this is usually relegated to the press release text rather than the spoken transcript.
And though there is some analyst speculation about an impending special dividend announcement, we don’t see a strong signal for that. Costco historically announces special dividends through press releases rather than on earnings calls. This will likely depend on an analyst question, so we consider it a toss-up.
Hot dog is an interesting one that we think leans toward NO. Traditionally, hot dog has been mentioned in the context of media rumors of price increases or in response to analyst questions. The general familiarity and “meme-ability” of the Costco hot dog lends itself to a favorite-longshot bias that may contribute to the YES position being overpriced. We think unless an analyst questions them, a NO here is more likely than a YES.