Today:
Why Pedro Pascal Isn't People’s Sexiest Man of the Year
While most gossipmongers and Hollywood fans will be watching the late night shows tonight to learn who will win the prestigious ‘Sexiest Man Alive’ designation, prediction market fans might already know the answer.
Several hours before the reveal on Fallon, PageSix reported (according to their sources) that “‘Wicked’ hunk Jonathan Bailey” will be 2025’s Sexiest Man Alive.
Kalshi odds promptly responded, shooting up to 97% before retreating back down to 72% as bettors wait for official confirmation.
Prior to this, perennial candidate Pedro Pascal was in the lead, but his odds for “yes” were still under 50%. At Oddchain, we got in at “No” at 72%.
On the topic of entertainment…
…it’s time to roll out the red carpet for another signal that prediction markets are going mainstream. Hollywood.com has partnered with Crypto.com to power their own entertainment-focused prediction market offering.
Co-CEO of Hollywood.com Mitchell Rubenstein refers to this as “the first prediction platform dedicated entirely to movies, TV, video gaming, Broadway, pop culture, and celebrities.”
We’re curious to see how they differentiate themselves from incumbents such Kalshi and Polymarket who offer markets in the entertainment and culture spaces. But it does seem that they have something in mind. Rubenstein’s statement continued, saying:
This isn’t about sports, politics, or financial markets—this is pure entertainment. We’re creating an entirely new way for fans to engage with the content they’re passionate about…
Here is why we made that bet
A year ago we listened to an episode of entertainment journalist and Puck founding partner Matthew Belloni’s podcast The Town, where we learned that people can turn down the offer of being People’s sexiest man alive.
Although it might seem obvious, this is a great example of the importance of understanding exactly how the outcome of the market is determined. In this case: Is the decision up to People, Pascal, or a combination of the two?
The question, then, is how much of the market understands this? And how many people are betting because they think he should win, or because he is more popular than the other contestants, instead of betting based on an informed prediction?
Up until recently, Pedro Pascal was still a leading candidate for People sexiest man alive.
However, Pedro (and Glen Powell, who was another option on Kalshi) has already purportedly turned the honor down in at least two previous years.
According to the Daily Mail’s sources, there is a certain perception surrounding the honor.
"Glen wants to make more of an impact in acting now that he is finally getting amazing roles and becoming more of a star, and Pedro doesn't feel like it was ever something he wanted to entertain," the source told the Daily Mail. "He sees the gimmick of it all and though there is a flattery to it, his ego doesn't need it," the source added.
Then when DuexMoi reported that he turned the offer down again, it became credible enough to believe that there was a reasonable chance he’d make the same choice again.
Ultimately, this was a niche market that presented multiple ways to make money. Alpha-hunters who set the appropriate Google alerts likely got the information ahead of Fallon’s audience, and even before that bettors could earn a strong return through an informed guess that Pascal -- who famously suffers from anxiety -- would yet again turn down the accolade.
Just another example of how prediction markets allow informed participants to gain edge on just about anything!
