Competition. Subscriber. Cruise. Abu Dhabi. Avatar. Zootopia. Moana. NFL. Doomsday. Acquisition. YouTube TV. WWE. DraftKings. Fortnite. Buyback. Weather.

We used our Earnings Call x Mention Markets tool to analyze Disney’s past earnings calls. (Results below.)

We think there are some outcomes that have a high probability of hitting, and the markets agree.  

Competition, Subscriber, and Cruise all seem highly likely based on past earnings calls and current market expectations. If you’re up for it you can probably squeeze out a few more dollars, but when it gets this close to 100% it can often feel like picking pennies off a train track.

One interesting note is that Disney is transitioning away from publicly reporting quarterly subscriber numbers and Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) for Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+, as of the first quarter of fiscal 2026. 

As reported by Variety. “The execs said that “while we will no longer disclose subscribers and ARPU, we will provide information on Entertainment Direct-to-Consumer profitability.” That said, there are other contexts that “Subscriber” will likely be mentioned.

Abu Dhabi sits comfortably at 93%. Bob Iger visited on January 25th, 2026, with the presumed next CEO of Disney Josh D’Amaro. (Did anyone else catch that move yesterday evening when the Bloomberg piece dropped?)

There are also some markets that we think are likely underpriced. 

Here is our overview of past Disney earnings call mentions.

We removed the forward looking statements page when analyzing the transcripts as that skewed some of the results. For example, with the forward looking statements page “weather” was mentioned on every single earnings call, BUT that is not the case once the page is removed. Weather was actually only mentioned once in Q1 of FY23 in the context of an action that would “better [position] [them] to weather future disruption.”

So, “weather” -- which currently sits at 12% -- is pretty unlikely.

Zootopia and Avatar may be underpriced. 

As of writing, they’re at 93% and 88% respectively. And they were the number 3 and 4 top grossing movies for the domestic box office of last year. 

If we were Disney, we’d mention these successes, so we think there is a good chance they’re mentioned. And to top things off, they were both also mentioned in the last three Disney earnings calls. Also, Disney’s CFO explicitly flagged Avatar on the Q4 FY2025 call as a key driver of Q1 guidance, and analysts are very likely to ask about its trajectory.

Acquisition is a bit of a toss up. The word has been used in the past in the context of a Fox acquisition, subscriber acquisition, and the acquisition of the NFL network. The “problem” is that if they say “acquire” or "acquired" it won’t count. So, while we think they’ll mention this, the grammar-based variable gives us pause.

Doomsday was mentioned twice in the last earnings call, and it is expected to finish out the 2026 calendar year. An Avengers movie was mentioned in most earnings calls.  

An Avengers movie wasn’t mentioned in Q3 of fiscal year 2025. We’d say Doomsday is probably underpriced currently at 70%, but it isn’t a guarantee. 

We think “NFL” is currently underpriced.  An ESPN-NFL mega-deal literally closed today (February 1, 2026), with ESPN getting  regulatory approval to acquire NFL Network and RedZone in exchange for a 10% equity stake in ESPN. 

On November 14th Disney announced that they came to an agreement with YouTube TV. The Q4 call referenced YouTube Negotiations and this deal’s impact falls within Q1 FY2026; however, we don’t feel that there’s strong enough signal for much conviction on this one at the moment.

And then some of these we find pretty unlikely.

Weather, which was mentioned above, is one of them.

Buyback is another that we think is unlikely to be mentioned. They regularly do buybacks, but it’s not exactly a hot topic for earnings calls. And they were only mentioned in two of the earnings calls we analyzed. And they’ve instead actually used the phrase “share repurchase” more than buybacks on past earnings calls.

“Share repurchase” mentions:

We’re thinking a no on this.

DraftKings is probably unlikely. Disney announced that ESPN and DraftKings entered a multi-year agreement on November 6, 2025, and there was no mention of it on the earnings call only a few days later on November 11, 2025. DraftKings stock is also currently down. 

Best of luck! 

- OddChain