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This afternoon (or early evening depending on where you are) Adobe will have their earnings call at 2 pm PT / 5 pm ET (3/12/26).
Kalshi has a market for it, so we wanted to break down some of the mentions in the market, provide some context, and identify some potential mispricing.
Coming into this call, Adobe has beaten analyst estimates for revenue in 12 straight quarters. And analysts expect that today will represent a new quarterly record, projecting Adobe will report first-quarter earnings per share of $5.46, up from $5.08 a year earlier. Polymarket currently has the odds for this at 92%, which aligns with analyst sentiment.
Chart from Synthesis.
Now, looking to today’s call, we used our earnings analysis tool to break down Adobe earnings calls going back to 2020.
Generative AI | Gen AI | Semrush | LLM Optimizer | |
2020 - Q1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2020 - Q2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2020 - Q3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2020 - Q4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2021 - Q1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2021 - Q2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2021 - Q3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2021 - Q4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2022 - Q1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2022 - Q2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2022 - Q3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2022 - Q4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2023 - Q1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2023 - Q2 | 20 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
2023 - Q3 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
2023 - Q4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
2024 - Q1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2024 - Q2 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2024 - Q3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2024 - Q4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2025 - Q1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2025 - Q2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2025 - Q3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
2025 - Q4 | 6 | 0 | 9 | 3 |