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This afternoon (or early evening depending on where you are) Adobe will have their earnings call at 2 pm PT / 5 pm ET (3/12/26).

Kalshi has a market for it, so we wanted to break down some of the mentions in the market, provide some context, and identify some potential mispricing.

Coming into this call, Adobe has beaten analyst estimates for revenue in 12 straight quarters. And analysts expect that today will represent a new quarterly record, projecting Adobe will report first-quarter earnings per share of $5.46, up from $5.08 a year earlier. Polymarket currently has the odds for this at 92%, which aligns with analyst sentiment. 

Now, looking to today’s call, we used our earnings analysis tool to break down Adobe earnings calls going back to 2020. 

Please note that some of the above mentions might include those of analysts. Per Kalshi rules, these wouldn't count toward resolution. And it goes without saying that past mentions don’t guarantee something will be said, but they do provide a good jumping off point for deeper analysis. If you want to take a look at the transcripts themselves, you can do so here.

At the time of writing, here are where prices on Kalshi currently stand:

Generative AI / Gen AI is pretty much a shoe-in, and is priced appropriately. Gen AI is a core strategic narrative of Adobe, and it’s appeared in earnings calls since Q4 2022 without fail. There’s no real edge here, but you can probably pick up some pennies if you want.

Now, Semrush is where we think there might be some mispricing. Current odds sit at 89% and we reckon they’re a bit higher. 

Last November, Adobe announced an agreement for Adobe to acquire Semrush in a $1.9 billion all-cash transaction. This would be the largest deal since the now-aborted Figma acquisition, which was mutually terminated due to insurmountable regulatory roadblocks. And, while that’s good for competition, it doesn’t have much to do with this particular market, so we’ll be moving on…

The deal received HSR (Hart-Scott-Rodino Act) clearance in January, and shareholder approval early last month. The deal is expected to close this year.

In the Q4 FY2025 Adobe earnings call transcript, "Semrush" appeared 9 times (1 was an analyst mention), mentioned by both Shantanu Narayen and Anil Chakravarthy: 

In past earnings calls, Adobe continued to mention acquisitions -- such as Workfront, Frame.io, and Figma -- after the acquisition, so that’s a lot of words to say chances of a Semrush mention are pretty high.

Fitting nicely with the potential Semrush mention…

LLM Optimizer is an interesting one. Adobe’s LLM Optimizer is a product designed to help brands optimize content for AI chatbots and LLM-powered search.

It launched in Q3 FY2025 and was mentioned substantively in both Q3 (7 times) and Q4 (4 times), anf is likely to be mentioned this time around in the context of the agentic web, brand visibility, and customer adoption metrics.

One interesting bit of note is that in a Semrush release, published earlier today, title “Semrush Unveils New Brand Identity to Command the AI Search Era” discussing “its strategic evolution from a search toolset to a unified intelligence engine that drives brand visibility for businesses of all sizes.” Writing that “Semrush is uniquely positioned to lead the convergence of SEO and AI Search and help ambitious markets understand where discovery happens and how to win visibility within it.” And most pointedly:

What’s interesting here is that the term LLM Optimizer wasn’t used. This may represent a shift in verbiage. Though, in a recent press release, discussing a Major League Baseball partnership, they mention Adobe LLM Optimizer, so the term might not be dead. 

We’re also leaning NO on Google Cloud. The Adobe and Google Cloud partnership was announced last October. In that press release the phrase “Google Cloud” was used many times. However, in the call following the partnership announcement, the phrase “Google Cloud” wasn’t used. Instead, we see the use of phrases like “Google” and “Google Gemini.” So, even if this partnership is discussed -- directly or indirectly -- a different phrase may be used.