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Today’s the day. The Oscars are nearly upon us. To make your life easy, I rounded up a bunch of research and analyses, and put together a spreadsheet of how some anonymous Oscar voters voted to help shed light on how they think. We also explore some interesting positions you can take that seem likely to end up in your favor.

One thing to keep in mind when you approach these markets is that you’ve got to separate the social media sentiment from the actual votes. What you think or Twitter thinks or your friend thinks doesn’t really matter because the Academy is made up of just over 10,000 members and their votes decide who wins.

There’s not a lot of demographic data available on the Academy, and if history continues to repeat itself, they’re not about to release more data any time soon. In 2012, the Los Angeles Times reported that there were:

However, since then, the Academy’s demographics have changed. Following the #OscarsSoWhite virality in the wake of the 2015 and 2016 nominations, the Academy launched an initiative to incorporate more diversity into the Academy. 

Perhaps the most “up to date” data that I could find was this overview of updated membership from 2020. And according to USA Today, in 2024, the Academy was made up of “10,894 members (9,905 voting members) and consists of 35% members identifying as women and 20% from underrepresented ethnic and racial communities.” And there has been an increase in international membership over the past years as well. For example, 55% of the new members in 2025 were international.

So, when you’re predicting how the Oscars will turn out, you’re predicting how these people will vote. 

Yet another complicating factor is that members don’t necessarily even watch all the movies before they vote. That said, the Academy is trying to remedy this. This year, there’s a new rule that “requires” members to watch all the nominees in a category before they can vote. Now, they can just check a box and say that they did, so this is essentially the honor system, but – anecdotally – according to some industry interviews I’ve listened to, it does seem to have made a bit of a difference.

Now, in an attempt to capture how some of the Oscar voters approached this year’s votes, I went through some “anonymous Oscar voter” articles that were floating around on the internet. 

Here is a spreadsheet of the results, but I also want to share some quotes that I found particularly interesting, such as:

And:

Then there’s this exchange:

This is an incredibly small sample size of the Oscar voting base, but it does provide some insight into how they approach their votes. And, at the very least, I find it interesting.

Then there’s what the pundits are saying…

If you Google Oscar predictions, you’ll find dozens of articles, but here are some that I found worth sharing…

One thing you’ll probably notice looking at all of this is that there is remarkable consistency with a lot of the predictions people are making, and that the categories that are still up in the air are actually still up in the air. And while this makes for a particularly exciting Oscars tonight, it makes for a less than ideal environment for predictors as unless you’re a select employee of  PWC who’s about to commit insider trading, it’s very unlikely that you’re going to come across genuine edge.

There are some near guarantees…

Best Picture is a two-horse race between One Battle After Another and Sinners. I still think One Battle is the favorite to win, though I also wouldn’t be surprised if Sinners won. Talking with people in Los Angeles, however, it does seem like One Battle is still the favorite to win.  

Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay will almost certainly go to Sinners and One Battle After Another respectively. Not much to go into there.

Animated Feature will probably go to KPop.

Best Director is probably going to PTA. 

For Best Actress, Jessie Buckley is basically a lock. And it’s widely believed to be essentially the only sure thing of the night. 

Best Visual Effects is most likely going to go to Avatar.

Best Actor is largely a fight between Michael B. Jordan and Timothée Chalamet. While Timothée might not win, if he loses it won’t be because of his comments on ballet. The fateful event with Timothée and Matthew McConaughey didn’t occur until after Oscar voting closed. Of course, there's a chance of insiders, but far far far more likely is that the sentiment of the overreaction from the news swung this. So there’s definitely some mispricing here, but it’s still going to be a close race.

Regarding Best Supporting Actor, even if he decides not to show up, Sean Penn is still a favorite. He won SAG and the BAFTA, and the last actor to win both and lose the Oscar was Christopher Walken back in 2002.

Amy Madigan is likely underpriced for Best Supporting Actress at around 50%.  

Casting will likely go to Francine Maisler for Sinners. It’s the first year this category has ever been around, so there’s not much to go off of. She has quite the resume. 

Production and Makeup and Hairstyling will likely go to Frankenstein.

At around 76% One Battle is likely underpriced for Best Cinematography. 

There are some others that I think are underpriced as well…

One Battle for Best Editing is likely underpriced.

Best International Feature will probably go to Sentimental Value. This is likely underpriced at around 70%. Though, The Secret Agent could still eke out a win.

The rest are pretty aligned with many of the predictions above, and there isn’t really a lot of edge to find, but I want to spend a bit of time on the best live action short. 

First of all, to improve your accuracy here, you can watch some of the movies. Fewer people have probably watched these than, say, the nominees for best picture.

A Friend of Dorothy is no longer online, but you can watch Two People Exchanging Saliva, The Singers, and Jane Austen’s Period Drama.

I think Two People is far more likely to win than the odds currently indicate. The Singers were really enjoyable, but it was more of a vibe. And, at least right now, if you think it’s a coin flip between these two you can do a bit of arbitrage and put $100 on each and still come out in the green.