Today:
Polymarket token launch looms.
The possibility of a Polymarket token launch looms, and with it, excitement over a potentially lucrative Polymarket airdrop.
Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan stoked the excitement on X with a 🤔 when he posted:
However, any tokens and/or airdrops are unlikely to come this year, sources told Decrypt, explaining that Polymarket did not “plan to launch its token until it has regained a foothold in the U.S. market.”
But the airdrop’s likely still coming: Unnamed sources told The Information in June that Polymarket planned to offer token warrants to investors in its July round.
And people are planning: People are already speculating on the criteria for the airdrop. Some that have been mentioned include:
Trading Volume
Profitability
Liquidity Provision
Number of Markets Traded
Competition seems like it’ll be fierce:
Will Polymarket announce a token this year?
Kalshi “Glitches”
Kalshi “Glitches” during a college football game on Saturday.
People on X called it an outage, though Kalshi preferred to view it as a “glitch.”
CNBC reported that:
A number of users on X reported the website was down when they were trying to place bets on college football games, with some saying they had open orders that wouldn’t process. When CNBC visited the website, it wouldn’t load, showing only a green K with a spinning circle around it for more than 20 minutes. The platform later loaded.
Saturday evening Kalshi emailed some users the following message:
Kalshi founder Tarek Mansour even responded:
So, I guess if you take Peanut Bettor’s word for it, Kalshi’s back!
Voting that Trump wouldn’t do anything would’ve yielded similar returns to the S&P500.
A Bloomberg op-ed looked at 300 markets on Polymarket between Inauguration Day and September 30th. Bettors have consistently overestimated Trump’s likelihood of acting, leading to mispriced odds.
This chaos is a tactic: They’re flooding the zone. And if this analysis is any evidence, it seems people (at least people on Polymarket) are overestimating the likelihood that anything will occur.
When Trump did act, and he is still doing quite a lot of stuff, those markets -- e.g., tariffs, immigration, etc. -- still over priced the probability of Trump actions occurring.
By the numbers (per the Bloomberg op-ed):
Markets analyzed: 310 Trump-related prediction markets (Jan 20–Sept 30, 2025).
Average initial probability Trump would act: 34%.
Actual follow-through: 28%.
Return on “No” bets: +12% (similar to S&P 500 performance).
Loss on “Yes” bets: −20%.
Return from June onward: +19% for “No” bets.
Number of Trump actions that did occur: 80+.
Best category for “No” profits: tariffs & domestic policy bets.
So, if you’d placed bets on Trump doing nothing, you would’ve made “$12 net profit for every $100” spent.
Whale Watching 🐳
On the Horizon
Prediction markets coming to Robinhood. Robinhood is adding 100 new prediction markets in the coming weeks.
Polymarket launches up/down markets. 15 minute up/down crypto polymarkets are now live.
Decrypt on airdrop farming. An interesting piece on Airdrop farming tactics for the potential Polymarket airdrop.
