Hello friends, we’re glad to have you with us! Today we’re going to look at:
To kick things off…
It seems we’re headed toward another potential shutdown.
A bunch of House and Senate members left DC Thursday afternoon, jetting off to the Munich Security Conference, so, it’s going to be particularly difficult -- if not impossible -- for there to be a last-minute vote to save the day.
That said, lawmakers in the House and Senate are on notice to return if a deal seems to be on the horizon, but that probably won’t happen before midnight.
Plus, there’s a chance that the shutdown might drag on. With the exception of Senator John Fetterman, the Ds are staying united. And on Wednesday (the 11th), The White House sent the text of their offer for DHS funding, which the Ds rejected. And with folks out of town, it’ll likely be a few days before any progress is made.
So, why then, you might be wondering, are prices on Polymarket and Kalshi for “Government shutdown tomorrow?” and “Government shutdown on Saturday?” so divergent?
Well, as we’ve discussed before, it comes down to the rules and a statement by Scott Kupor, the director of the Office of Personnel Management:
And because of the difference in rules of resolution for Polymarket and Kalshi, each market responded differently.
On Polymarket, the rules state:
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces a new federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by February 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A continuation, without any reopening, of the partial government shutdown which began on January 31, 2026, will not qualify.
Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.
The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
With the added additional context:
Per the rules “A qualifying government shutdown will be defined as having begun when the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces that the U.S. federal government is shut down due to a lapse in appropriations. If OPM does not announce a shutdown or partial shutdown by the resolution date this market will resolve to “No” regardless of if a funding lapse occurs or if some government agencies remain unfunded
Kalshi’s rules state that:
If the United States federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Feb 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Office of Management and Budget and United States Office of Personnel Management.
A shutdown is defined as the government’s orderly suspension of agency work that is not legally excepted, typically accompanied by furloughing the employees who perform that work, when funding is unavailable.
Examples that would resolve the market to Yes:
• OMB releases a formal directive that orders heads of the affected agencies to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown," which is in effect as of 10:00 AM ET on Feb 14, 2026
• OPM posts a current operating status that indicates that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency"
Examples that would NOT resolve the market to Yes:
• A technical lapse in appropriations occurs, but OMB directs agencies to continue standard operations
• Government closures or operating status changes resulting from Federal holidays, inclement weather, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations
In other words, Kalshi doesn’t simply come down to the OPM website, but Polymarket does. This is notable, because there is a real chance that a part of the government will shutdown this evening, and this occurs whether or not the OPM website is updated. If one of the intentions of prediction markets is to accurately reflect what will occur, then the rules of resolution need to be correctly written. Because, right now, on Kalshi people are taking positions on whether or not there will be a shutdown, and on Polymarket people are taking positions on whether a website will be updated. Those are not the same thing.
On the topic of the Munich Security Conference
AOC spoke today at the Munich Security Conference, offering a “working class” perspective on U.S. foreign policy.
The news that AOC would speak at the conference was first widely reported around February 6, 2026, when the New York Times published the profile "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Steps Onto a Wider Stage."
Although she still trails Newsom on Polymarket -- who’s at 27% -- there was a small bump in the odds of AOC being the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 after the article broke. And professional and amateur Twitter pundits are hinting at this being a test for her on a more global stage.
Beyond AOC, Newsom, Whitmer, and Gallego -- other potential nominees -- are all also speaking at the conference.
And, even though it’s still early, they all maintain a comfortable lead over Mr. Beast, The Rock, and Hunter Biden:
I wouldn’t expect too much movement in these markets until the midterms are done, but keep your eyes out for signals in the coming months to help build your model. And if you’re not doing that, we’ll be doing some of that for you.
How Gaetan Dugas Finds Edge in Spotify and Billboard Markets
Below is an excerpt from our recent conversation with top Kalshi Trader Gaetan Dugas…
You talk a lot about how to build models for markets, and about really data-backed theses for these things and how to find edge with those models. Can you go into a little bit more detail about what that actually means from a practical perspective?
Sure.
Like, if you have an edge, how do you build to get that?
Sure. So, I'll walk through Spotify as an example since it's pretty easy compared to a lot of the other ones and the data is so easily accessible.