In our last update, Polymarket’s December recovery contract traded near 33 cents. As of September 17, it’s around 17.5 cents. The contract pays Yes if IMF PortWatch records a seven-day average of at least 60 commercial passages for a qualifying date by December 31.

Since our last report, the US military has announced that it cleared the international shipping lanes, and Oman and Iran have proposed a temporary corridor. Those developments could make passage easier to arrange, but operators still face warnings about mines and attacks on vessels. Meanwhile, shipping analysts report more crossings than appear in the IMF series.

In recent IMF data, ¹ the seven daily counts ending that day were 5, 6, 3, 5, 8, 2 and 8: 37 passages in total, or an average of 5.29 a day. Reaching an average of 60 requires 420 qualifying passages across seven days.

Lloyd’s List Intelligence recorded at least 97 non-Iranian-linked passages during the same September 7–13 week, up from 83 the week before. That is about 13.9 a day.

This variance is the result of the trackers counting different groups of ships. The IMF series used by the contract covers five commercial vessel categories: tankers, dry bulk carriers, container ships, general cargo ships and roll-on/roll-off ships. The last category includes vessels that carry vehicles. Lloyd’s briefing covers cargo-carrying ships above 10,000 deadweight tonnes, a measure of carrying capacity. Its 97-passage figure also excludes ships it classifies as Iranian-linked through ownership, trade exposure or sanctions status.

Lloyd’s also adds passages after confirming that ships crossed with their tracking signals switched off. USNI reports that these delayed confirmations have left shipping analysts about a week behind events.

The military figures describe another group: ships whose passage the US facilitated. USNI reported 44 such passages over September 1–2, or 22 a day, compared with administration claims of 30–40 a day. Those figures refer to an earlier period than the latest IMF week and should not be added to the commercial trackers' totals.

Lloyd’s also recorded 47 non-Iranian-linked inbound passages in September 7–13, up from 36 the previous week, and treats inbound traffic as an indicator of operator confidence. Ships entering the Gulf suggest owners are willing to undertake voyages there despite the risks.

On August 27, CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper said the internationally recognized shipping routes had been cleared of Iranian mines. USNI reported his statement, alongside Lloyd’s List editor Richard Meade’s account of shipping-industry skepticism that no mines remained. Maritime advisories issued in late August and early September continued to warn of possible uncharted or drifting mines.

For the December traffic contract, clearance would help if it allows ships to use routes they previously avoided. Evidence of operators returning to those routes would give traders a stronger basis for expecting more crossings. Continuing attacks, however, could still deter voyages along a cleared route.

Some cargo is moving despite those risks. USNI describes shuttles carrying oil and gas through the strait, then transferring cargo offshore to other ships. These arrangements let some operators continue trading during the conflict. For the traffic contract, their expansion would matter through the additional qualifying passages they generate; an increase in barrels shipped alone does not tell us how many crossings occurred.

Oman and Iran’s August 25 statement proposed a temporary navigational corridor and a joint mine-clearance project. Further technical negotiations would address a permanent corridor, traffic management and the strait’s future administration. For an owner considering a voyage, agreed routes and traffic-management procedures could make it easier to plan a passage and assess its risks. The statement does not set an opening date.

Oman postponed the regional meeting scheduled for September 14, without announcing a replacement date in that statement. Axios reports an expected Trump–Gulf leaders meeting on September 22, citing three sources; the White House declined comment.

A start date, clear eligibility and permission rules, and an agreed security arrangement would give owners more information on which to plan a voyage. For traders, those details would help assess whether an agreement could bring more ships back before their contract expires. And while there is no peace-agreement requirement in the December contract, protected shipping, a negotiated corridor, or some combination could contribute to a qualifying count.