Yesterday, we used our new Earnings Call Dashboard tool coupled with recent news to analyze the CoreWeave Q3 earnings call, and make some personal predictions. To our delight, all four of our theses played out in the affirmative! 

Today, we’ll be using the same techniques to analyze Circle’s earnings call, coming up on Wednesday, 11/12.

Notably, Circle’s earnings call market has a significant degree of variance, with two separate mentions currently being priced at a coin flip or near to it. (For context, the markets that OddChain honed in on for CoreWeave were all priced at >80% odds of a mention).

These wider spreads are likely attributable to the relative lack of information about Circle’s call practices. Circle IPO’d in June 2025, and there has only been one earnings call to date. This call unfortunately does not provide a great deal of insight, and, as such, any markets we’ll be targeting will be based primarily on Circle’s Q3 news cycle, as well as the broader stablecoin landscape. 

With that in mind, here are the markets we’re watching:

At 39% at the time of writing, M&A may be curiously underpriced.

For starters, according to OddChain’s Earnings Call Dashboard tool, M&A is among the keywords mentioned in the Q2 call, as Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire, when asked about his thoughts on leveraging the value in their stock to drive additional shareholder value, mentioned that they see opportunities to use their currency to do M&A.

Additionally, M&A for stablecoin companies has been the topic of independent research, and Circle is notably voracious for buyouts -- having purchased Hashnote in January as well as Malachite in August -- in addition to multiple acquisitions throughout the life of the company, including SeedInvest and Elements. 

Circle’s upcoming Arc chain, which was discussed on their previous earnings call, will also likely require specialization and skills outside of the stablecoin giant’s usual wheelhouse. In addition to Malachite, it’s easy to envision Allaire and co. casting a scrying eye to see who can help them stand up a full layer-1 chain. 

Finally, Circle itself was a target of a potential buyout from both Coinbase and Ripple earlier in the year. While Circle ultimately turned down both opportunities and opted to go public via a SPAC, this provides yet another context in which the phrase could be uttered. 

Ultimately, OddChain will be looking to acquire “Yes” shares given the convex upside presented by the market. 

Note: This market led to division internally at OddChain, as one contributor with legal experience expressed doubt that, even if Circle were pursuing M&A, they would use the phrase directly. 

In September, Circle announced a deep integration with Kraken to “expand the access to and utility of USDC and EURC on the Kraken platform.” (In October 2019, Circle sold its Circle Trade Business to Kraken.)

Peering through the corpo-speak for a moment, what this means from a practical perspective is likely on par with Circle’s current integration with Coinbase. There, USD and USDC are effectively fungible, with users being able to swap into and out of the stablecoin with two clicks, and all dollar liquidity shared across both tickers. 

Coinbase is by far Circle’s most important distribution channel and partner -- enough so that the stablecoin issuer gave Coinbase 54% of revenue in 2024. 

Kraken is significantly smaller than Coinbase, but could likewise be a major launchpad for capturing more marketshare. At 84%, this “YES” buy reminds us of CoreWeave’s mentions of Marimo (mentioned in the context of their recent acquisition) and Crowdstrike (mentioned in the context of their CoreWeaves’ recent partnership with them) -- but currently sits even cheaper. 

We’ll circle back 11/12 to check our personal predictions!