Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15? resolved Yes on 6 October 2026. We found 935 wallets that held a position at some point. We went through the market and found top winners and losers, so you can find some interesting traders to watch or avoid.
Quick takeaways:
The side that led for the final week lost. Yes averaged 73¢ on the first day, September 23, 44¢ on September 27, and between 31¢ and 39¢ on every day from September 30 to October 5. On October 6, it averaged 21¢ in the 06:00 and 07:00 hours UTC, 81¢ in the 09:00 hour and $1.00 from the 10:00 hour. The contract resolved Yes at 11:41, 52 minutes before the October 31 version.
The ten largest gains accounted for 81% of all gains.
The account with the largest gain bought both sides and sold one. They bought 24,688 Yes at an average of 34¢ between October 1 and 4, and 17,112 No at 47¢, sold all the No at an average of 60¢ and held the Yes: +$18,442, 112% on $16,510.
All ten accounts with the largest losses bought No at 57–74¢, and seven still held at least 90% of their No shares at settlement. Huludubu's was a single purchase, 3,500 No at 72¢ on October 5: −$2,513.
The market in numbers
Wallets that held a position | 935 |
Wallets that gained | 340 |
Wallets that lost | 525 |
Wallets that finished at $0 | 70 |
Total gained by the wallets that gained | $65,663 |
Share of gains taken by the ten largest | 81% |
Share of losses borne by the ten largest | 49% |
Volume reported by Polymarket | $456,306 |
How to Read this
Results are each wallet’s net cash gain or loss on this contract through 30 September 2026, including trading fees and the payout value of remaining shares. Wallets that sold before settlement are included. Other contracts, network fees and separately paid rewards are excluded; figures may differ from Polymarket’s.
Wallets are addresses, not people, and account names are user-chosen. Full lists show up to ten entries, stopping below $250 but retaining at least five. The public preview shows the two largest gains.
Prices are share-weighted averages excluding fees. Percentage returns use cumulative exchange purchase spending, including fees; deposits used to create shares are excluded.
Holding labels cover both outcomes through the snapshot: Held means at least 90% of acquired shares were not sold, merged or transferred out; Had exited means at least 90% were; Held part falls between. Redemption does not count as an exit. All times are UTC.
How the price of Yes moved
When (UTC) | Yes |
23 September | 73¢ |
27 September | 44¢ |
28 September | 60¢ |
30 September – 5 October | 31–39¢ |
6 October, 06:00 and 07:00 hours | 21¢ |
6 October, 09:00 hour | 81¢ |
6 October, from 10:00 | $1.00 |
6 October, 11:41 | Resolved Yes |
Largest losses
Rank | Account | Result | Bought (average price) | First trade | Holding label |
1 | −$9,563 | 200 Yes at 69¢; 14,959 No at 67¢ | Sep 24 | Held | |
2 | −$4,581 | 12,327 No at 57¢ | Sep 27 | Held part | |
3 | −$4,178 | 7,190 Yes at 68¢; 3,070 No at 65¢ | Sep 23 | Held part | |
4 | −$3,278 | 5,372 No at 61¢ | Sep 26 | Held | |
5 | −$2,513 | 3,500 No at 72¢ | Oct 5 | Held | |
6 | −$1,650 | 2,500 No at 66¢ | Oct 1 | Held | |
7 | −$1,625 | 2,500 No at 65¢ | Oct 1 | Held | |
8 | −$1,581 | 4,762 No at 67¢ | Sep 27 | Held part | |
9 | −$1,485 | 2,039 No at 73¢ | Sep 30 | Held | |
10 | −$1,480 | 2,000 No at 74¢ | Oct 5 | Held |