Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship? resolved No on 28 September 2026. We found 238 wallets that held a position at some point. The figures below are each wallet's net cash result on this contract, taken from on-chain transactions.
Quick takeaways:
The price collapsed five weeks before the result. After a few hundred shares at 72¢ on the first day, Yes averaged 46–59¢ a day from 2 to 8 August and 14–21¢ from 14 to 19 August. On 20 August it averaged 15¢ in the 05:00 hour UTC and 4¢ in the 06:00 hour, and from 21 August the daily average stayed below 6¢.
One transaction largely shaped the result. On 23 August Batundi bought 216,771 No for $210,268, at 97¢. On the other side of the same transaction, the account named Joe-Biden bought 216,681 Yes for $6,500, at 3¢.
That one trade was the largest gain. Batundi made no other trade, held to settlement and finished +$6,251. This accounts for 40% of all gains on the contract, and a 3% return on the money put in.
Joe-Biden bore most of the losses. Joe-Biden bought 394,186 Yes in all for $11,826 and lost all of it, which is 73% of every dollar lost on this contract.
It was a small, concentrated market. 238 wallets held a position. The ten largest gains were 92% of all gains, and beyond the two largest every loss was under $260.
Among the largest gains, the earlier No buyers earned more per dollar. zhaoyk made one purchase at 56¢ on 4 August and made $379 (69%). TrickyWicky paid an average of 80¢ between 12 and 20 August and made $2,162 (24%). Webwaffle420 paid an average of 82¢ and made $803 (21%). The four on the list who paid 97¢ after the drop each made 3%.
The market in numbers
Wallets that held a position | 238 |
Wallets that gained | 102 |
Wallets that lost | 133 |
Wallets that finished at $0 | 3 |
Total gained by the wallets that gained | $15,558 |
Share of gains taken by the ten largest | 92% |
Share of losses borne by the ten largest | 93% |
Volume reported by Polymarket | $478,375 |
How to Read this
Results are each wallet’s net cash gain or loss on this contract through 30 September 2026, including trading fees and the payout value of remaining shares. Wallets that sold before settlement are included. Other contracts, network fees and separately paid rewards are excluded; figures may differ from Polymarket’s.
Wallets are addresses, not people, and account names are user-chosen. Full lists show up to ten entries, stopping below $250 but retaining at least five. The public preview shows the two largest gains.
Prices are share-weighted averages excluding fees. Percentage returns use cumulative exchange purchase spending, including fees; deposits used to create shares are excluded.
Holding labels cover both outcomes through the snapshot: Held means at least 90% of acquired shares were not sold, merged or transferred out; Had exited means at least 90% were; Held part falls between. Redemption does not count as an exit. All times are UTC.
How the price of Yes moved
When (UTC) | Yes |
1 August | 72¢ (220 shares) |
2–8 August | 46–59¢ (daily average) |
14–19 August | 14–21¢ |
20 August, 05:00 hour | 15¢ |
20 August, 06:00 hour | 4¢ |
From 21 August | under 6¢ |
28 September, 20:29 | Resolved No |
Largest losses
Rank | Account | Result | Bought (average price) | First trade | Holding label |
1 | −$11,826 | 394,186 Yes at 3.0¢ | Aug 23 | Held | |
2 | −$1,750 | 8,828 Yes at 23¢ | Aug 4 | Had exited | |
3 | −$256 | 1,332 Yes at 20¢; 40 No at 85¢ | Aug 12 | Had exited | |
4 | −$236 | 4,015 Yes at 5.8¢ | Aug 14 | Held | |
5 | −$214 | 319 Yes at 67¢ | Aug 1 | Had exited |
The two largest gains
Rank | Account | Result | Bought (average price) | First trade | Holding label |
1 | +$6,251 | 216,771 No at 97.0¢ | Aug 23 | Held | |
2 | +$3,071 | 1,158 Yes at 17¢; 103,940 No at 97.0¢ | Aug 13 | Held |
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