Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15? resolved No on 23 September 2026. We went through the market and found top winners and losers, so you can find some interesting traders to watch or avoid.
Quick takeaways:
People saw the outcome coming. Yes averaged 13¢ on the first day of trading, 11 August, and 2¢ by 19 August. From 28 August the daily average was 1¢ or less. The contract resolved No on 23 September.
Despite the large volume, little money was made. Polymarket reports $2.5 million of volume, but the wallets that gained only made $24,864 between them.
The large gains came from buying the favorite. All ten of the largest gains bought No at an average of 85¢ or more, and six of the ten paid an average of 97¢ or more.
And the best return among the ten was the earliest purchase. The trader bought 6,300 No at 85¢ on the first day and made $907, or 17%.
Most of the large winners sold before settlement.
The losses were long shots. All ten of the largest losses bought only Yes, at an average of 14¢ or less. The largest bought 250,000 Yes for $6,360 and sold them at an average of 0.3¢: −$5,619.
The market in numbers
Wallets that held a position | 898 |
Wallets that gained | 585 |
Wallets that lost | 296 |
Wallets that finished at $0 | 17 |
Total gained by the wallets that gained | $24,864 |
Share of gains taken by the ten largest | 66% |
Share of losses borne by the ten largest | 71% |
Volume reported by Polymarket | $2,543,177 |
How to Read this
Results are each wallet’s net cash gain or loss on this contract through 30 September 2026, including trading fees and the payout value of remaining shares. Wallets that sold before settlement are included. Other contracts, network fees and separately paid rewards are excluded; figures may differ from Polymarket’s.
Wallets are addresses, not people, and account names are user-chosen. Full lists show up to ten entries, stopping below $250 but retaining at least five. The public preview shows the two largest gains.
Prices are share-weighted averages excluding fees. Percentage returns use cumulative exchange purchase spending, including fees; deposits used to create shares are excluded.
Holding labels cover both outcomes through the snapshot: Held means at least 90% of acquired shares were not sold, merged or transferred out; Had exited means at least 90% were; Held part falls between. Redemption does not count as an exit. All times are UTC.
How the price of Yes moved
When (UTC) | Yes |
11 August | 13¢ |
13 August | 7¢ |
19 August | 2¢ |
From 28 August | 1¢ or less |
23 September, 23:32 | Resolved No |
Largest losses
Rank | Account | Result | Bought (average price) | First trade | At settlement |
10 | −$615 | 5,000 Yes at 14¢ | Aug 11 | Had exited | |
9 | −$627 | 120,261 Yes at 1.2¢ | Aug 17 | Had exited | |
8 | −$694 | 5,339 Yes at 13¢ | Aug 11 | Held | |
7 | −$717 | 120,224 Yes at 0.6¢ | Sep 3 | Held | |
6 | −$821 | 44,196 Yes at 2.4¢ | Aug 17 | Had exited | |
5 | −$996 | 28,162 Yes at 6.4¢ | Aug 11 | Had exited | |
4 | −$1,268 | 10,410 Yes at 12¢ | Aug 11 | Held | |
3 | −$2,650 | 27,500 Yes at 10¢ | Aug 12 | Held | |
2 | −$3,681 | 50,468 Yes at 7.5¢ | Aug 12 | Held | |
1 | −$5,619 | 250,000 Yes at 2.5¢ | Aug 13 | Had exited |