US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? resolved Yes on 12 October 2026. We found 924 wallets that held a position at some point. The figures below are each wallet's net cash result on this contract, taken from on-chain transactions.
Quick takeaways:
This market was short and one-sided. It was created on October 3 and resolved Yes on October 12. Yes averaged 84¢ on the first day, 90¢ by October 5, 97¢ on October 11, and 99¢ on the final day.
The sums were small. The largest gain was $1,517 and the largest loss $2,348. 537 wallets gained and 371 lost; 277 of the gains were under $1.
Seven of the ten largest gains bought only Yes, at average prices between 91¢ and 97¢, and made between 2% and 10% on the money put in. scout staked $33,298 and made $1,517 (4.6%).
The best return among the ten was two purchases. Parz1vaI bought 15,173 Yes at 90.6¢ on 9 October and held: +$1,429, 10%.
The losses were long shots. Eight of the ten largest losses bought only No, at average prices between 1.6¢ and 9.4¢; six of the eight held to settlement and lost the whole stake.
It was possible to lose on the winning side. coinlaundry bought 42,448 Yes at 94.4¢ on October 7 and sold them all on October 9 at an average of 91.6¢: −$1,175.
The market in numbers
Wallets that held a position | 924 |
Wallets that gained | 537 |
Wallets that lost | 371 |
Wallets that finished at $0 | 16 |
Total gained by the wallets that gained | $18,807 |
Share of gains taken by the ten largest | 45% |
Share of losses borne by the ten largest | 54% |
Volume reported by Polymarket | $1,988,650 |
How to Read this
Results are each wallet’s net cash gain or loss on this contract through 30 September 2026, including trading fees and the payout value of remaining shares. Wallets that sold before settlement are included. Other contracts, network fees and separately paid rewards are excluded; figures may differ from Polymarket’s.
Wallets are addresses, not people, and account names are user-chosen. Full lists show up to ten entries, stopping below $250 but retaining at least five. The public preview shows the two largest gains.
Prices are share-weighted averages excluding fees. Percentage returns use cumulative exchange purchase spending, including fees; deposits used to create shares are excluded.
Holding labels cover both outcomes through the snapshot: Held means at least 90% of acquired shares were not sold, merged or transferred out; Had exited means at least 90% were; Held part falls between. Redemption does not count as an exit. All times are UTC.
How the price of Yes moved
When (UTC) | Yes |
3 October | 84¢ |
5–6 October | 90¢ |
7–8 October | 94¢ |
11 October | 97¢ |
12 October | 99¢ |
12 October, 23:21 | Resolved Yes |
Largest losses
Rank | Account | Result | Bought (average price) | First trade | Holding label |
1 | −$2,348 | 139,031 No at 5.2¢ | Oct 4 | Held part | |
2 | −$2,013 | 47,805 No at 4.2¢ | Oct 10 | Held | |
3 | −$1,175 | 42,448 Yes at 94.4¢ | Oct 7 | Had exited | |
4 | −$879 | 55,771 No at 1.6¢ | Oct 9 | Held | |
5 | −$783 | 8,333 No at 9.4¢ | Oct 5 | Held | |
6 | −$674 | 16,454 No at 5.4¢ | Oct 7 | Held part | |
7 | −$662 | 13,106 No at 5.0¢ | Oct 7 | Held | |
8 | −$639 | 20,174 No at 3.2¢ | Oct 10 | Held | |
9 | −$606 | 51,508 Yes at 95.5¢; 79,742 No at 3.3¢ | Oct 7 | Held part | |
10 | −$515 | 13,537 No at 3.8¢ | Oct 10 | Held |