Today:
Did the Paris jewel thieves bet on their own capture?
Over the weekend, intrepid chain-checkers discovered some unusual trades being placed on whether or not the Paris jewel thieves would be caught:
In the comments:
Now, I’m not sure this is what MysDark was implying but I couldn’t help but wonder how crazy it would be if one of the thieves started to place bets on their own (or at least their accomplices) capture.
The account in question was hypeman, who placed a lot of orders in quick succession.
It didn’t seem like it would be wise to pause on your way to the airport to buy some “yes’s” on Polymarket.
Would it be hilarious? Definitely. Stupid? Yes.
So, I rolled up my sleeves and started digging into the on-chain data, and in about 10 seconds and very little effort, I saw the account was still active today. While it would be profoundly rich if the Louvre thieves were using Polymarket to hedge against their own capture, the odds are strong that this account is probably not the suspect captured by the Préfecture de Police. Personally, I think that if this is an “insider”, with “non-public information”, it’s far more likely that they’re a gendarme or fonctionnaire who is regularly interfacing with the local police in Paris.
Kalshi is going to war with New York’s gambling regulators. The fight could redraw the map for event-contract trading in the U.S.
The CFTC-regulated exchange filed suit in Manhattan federal court after the New York State Gaming Commission sent a cease-and-desist letter on October 24, ordering it to halt sports-event markets the state calls “illegal sports wagering.”
Kalshi claims that the New York State Gaming Commission (NYSGC) has exceeded its authority under federal law and has filed for declaratory and injunctive relief to bar the Commission from enforcing an October 24, 2025 cease-and-desist letter that classified Kalshi’s sports event contracts as illegal gambling under New York Law.
The core issue of the case is: Whether the Commodity Exchange Act’s “exclusive jurisdiction” clause (7 U.S.C. § 2(a)(1)(A)) preempts the NYSGC from applying New York’s gambling laws to Kalshi’s CFTC-regulated sports event contracts and enforcing its cease-and-desist letter.
If you feel like you’ve read about this case before, you’re probably already familiar with similar cases in New Jersey, Massachusetts, Maryland, and Nevada.
Kalshi’s complaint rests on both field and conflict preemption. It asserts that New York’s attempt to classify Kalshi’s federally regulated event contracts as illegal gambling intrudes into a field Congress has occupied exclusively through the Commodity Exchange Act’s “exclusive jurisdiction” clause, 7 U.S.C. § 2(a)(1)(A), and directly conflicts with the CFTC’s regulatory oversight of Designated Contract Markets. Kalshi warns that if states are permitted to enforce gambling laws against CFTC-regulated exchanges, the resulting regulatory patchwork would recreate the very fragmentation Congress sought to eliminate when it enacted the CEA.
How Kalshi frames their product: Kalshi asserts that its event contracts are financial derivatives designed to hedge event-driven economic risk and surface information relevant to market participants. Sports events, Kalshi argues, present material economic exposure to sponsors, broadcasters, sportsbooks, and other commercial actors, making them appropriate subjects for regulated derivatives markets.
Kalshi’s factual allegations in the Complaint are, in short:
Event Contracts Are Recognized Financial Instruments: Kalshi alleges that event contracts, like other derivatives, are well-established financial tools used to mitigate risk associated with uncertain future events.
Exclusive Federal Regulatory Authority: Congress delegated regulatory authority over such derivatives to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) under the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA).
Federal Registration and Oversight: After a multi-year regulatory review process, the CFTC registered Kalshi as a Designated Contract Market (DCM), subjecting its products to federal oversight and compliance obligations.
State Enforcement Threat: The New York State Gaming Commission issued a cease-and-desist letter and threatened civil penalties against Kalshi based on the state’s gambling laws, notwithstanding the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction.
Where things stand: Past cases in Nevada and New Jersey have issued preliminary injunctions in Kalshi’s favor, holding that the CEA’s exclusive jurisdiction clause likely preempts state gambling laws as applied to Kalshi’s federally regulated events contracts.
However, by contrast, a Maryland district court went the other way, and denied preliminary injunctive relief, concluding that Kalshi had not shown a sufficient likelihood of success on its preemption claims; that decision is now on appeal to the Fourth Circuit.
The outcome in New York could help clarify or potentially even decide, whether state regulators or the CFTC have the ultimate authority to set the rules for event-contract markets, and whether New York can treat Kalshi’s contracts as “gambling” under New York Law, notwithstanding their federal regulatory status.
They don’t call it the “American Experiment” for nothing. How do you think this will end? Different states with a hodge podge of vibe rulings until the ultimate Court of Vibes (see SCOTUS) gets bored and decides to take a stab, or Congress gets off its cul and legislates the record straight?
The full complaint can be read here. You can read the gambling association’s letter here.
A Good Catch
User @Argona0X caught a great 15-min sniper that profited $13k.
One of the reasons moves like this can work is that short time-horizons can amplify inefficiencies. Traders might react slowly to real-time data, creating opportunities for arbitrage.
With markets like this, you can enter at mispricing and then exit pre-resolve, locking in EV without binary risk.
And ajroc is still at it, placing up and down bets for the 28th. We’ll see how they do tomorrow.
Will Polymarket return to the US this year?
We previously speculated on whether or not Polymarket would return to the US this year.
On Tuesday, Bloomberg reported that according to people familiar with the matter Polymarket is preparing to return to the US in the coming weeks.
Their focus will apparently be on sports betting.
Bloomberg said that:
Initial trading is likely by the end of November but won’t be broadly available to everyone, said some of the people who asked not to be identified discussing the confidential plans.
On Polymarket odds are that there’s a 91% chance that Polymarket will go live in 2025:
How did you place your bets?
A Good Watch
Kalshi founders Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara recently spoke with Molly O’Shea (host of the Sourcery Podcast) about Turning Events into Assets at Citadel Securities’ Future of Global Markets 2025 event at Casa Cipriani in New York City on October 6, 2025.
An overview of this conversation will be forthcoming.
Trump dives into prediction markets.
If the Trump-affiliated ICOs are any indication, various corporations that bear the Trump name are not likely to let an opportunity pass them by. Prediction markets are apparently now coming to Truth Social.
The new product is tentatively titled “Truth Predict.”
The Trump Media & Technology Group is doing this through an exclusive arrangement with Crypto.com. Potential markets mentioned in their announcement include:
Political Elections
Interest and Inflation Rate Changes
Commodity Prices on Gold and Crude Oil
Events Across All Major Sports Leagues.
In a statement Devin Nunes, Chairman and CEO of Trump Media, said
For too long, global elites have closely controlled these markets – with Truth Predict, we’re democratizing information and empowering everyday Americans to harness the wisdom of the crowd.
So, we’re excited to see how Truth Predict meaningfully differentiates itself from the likes of Kalshi and Polymarket.
In their statement, they say that “Truth Social will be the first social media platform to offer its users technology to access embedded prediction markets capabilities through CDNA.”
Since there doesn’t seem to be a specific timeline for its release, we’ll be curious if anyone beats them to the punch.
They plan to start with Beta tests followed by a full launch in the United States, with the goal of eventually launching the service globally. To place bets “Truth Social and Truth+ users who have Truth gems, which are earned for interacting on the platforms, will be able to convert their gems into the Cronos (CRO) digital currency and apply them to purchases of Truth Predict contracts.”
How will this turn out? Only time will tell the… truth.
