With ~$11,275,212 in volume on Kalshi and ~$13,242,144 in volume on Polymarket for "How long will the Government Shutdown last?" a lot of money is on the line.
We recently wrote on the markets leading up to the shutdown. So, at this point, if you're reading this, you probably know that the shutdown occurred and we're now all trying to figure out how long it will last.
Speaker Mike Johnson said on Fox News Sunday that he plans on getting it done by Tuesday, saying: "We'll get this done by Tuesday, I'm convinced." He added that “[t]he president is leading this."
The positions that are the most in play right now are "More than 4 days" and "More than 5 days"
“More than 3 days” seems like a lock at this point, and -- barring anything unexpected happening -- you can probably still pick up some pennies, but moves like that often aren't worth it.
The Pipeline of the Funding Bill
Because Democrats refused to fast-track it under suspension of the rules, the Senate-passed funding bill has to move through regular order. This involves three sequential gates, each of which the bill must clear:
Rules Committee — Monday 4 PM ET
Floor rule vote — likely Tuesday
Final passage — Tuesday, possibly late (could be delayed depending on how the floor rule vote goes)
Now, the rules committee vote this afternoon is important but probably not decisive.
The committee is 9R-4D.
Assuming that all Democrats vote no, Republicans need 7 of 9 to get it out of the committee.
Two potential R dissenters are Chip Roy (TX) and Ralph Norman (SC). Roy voted against seven procedural rules in the 118th Congress, and both voted against the One Big Beautiful Bill in this committee last July, which still passed 7-6.
However, Roy might not break from party lines. Roy told Fox News Saturday that Democrats were "playing politics" and expressed optimism the bill could pass.
Even if Roy and Norman defect again, this bill passes the Rules Committee 7-6. It’ll only die with a third defection, and none of the other members (Foxx, Fischbach, Houchin, Langworthy, Austin Scott, Griffith, or Brian Jack) have signaled that they intend to do so.
One thing to watch with this…
If the Rules Committee issues an open or modified rule, matters would likely be complicated as it would allow for floor amendments, and Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) or allies could force a vote on the SAVE Act. And if that amendment passes on the floor, the bill is no longer identical to what the Senate passed and it must go back to the Senate for another vote. On this note, Schumer has called the SAVE Act "dead on arrival."
We’d be surprised if there were changes to the bill during the Rules Committee today.
The Real Chokepoint is the Floor Vote
Speaker Johnson needs nearly every R to vote “Yes” for this bill to pass. If it fails the House vote, the rule goes back to the Rules Committee for revision. Johnson could bring a new rule, but that adds at minimum a day, pushing resolution to Thursday at the earliest.
One variable that impacts the numbers here is whether newly elected Democrat Christian Menefee gets sworn in before the vote.
Before Menefee the House membership is 218 R and 213 D. In this case, Johnson can lose 2 Republicans.
After Menefee the House membership is 218 R and 214 D. In this case, Johnson can lose 1 Republican.
There are some potential Republican holdouts.
Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) is demanding the SAVE Act be attached to the bill. She earlier claimed (on the 29th) to have enough votes to shut down the floor. But her language has since shifted. On Monday she told Punchbowl News: "I cannot control the outcome... But what I can do is control my vote."
Tim Burchett (R-TN) is named by Politico as sympathetic to Luna's SAVE Act push. Whether he's a firm no on the rule or just grumbling is unclear.
Unnamed ultra-conservatives want to scrap the two-week DHS stopgap entirely and push for six weeks or longer.
Some people might simply be absent. On any given House vote, 2-5 members are typically absent. And in a world where Johnson can lose only 1-2 votes, a single absent Republican is functionally a defection.
While drafting this piece, news broke that Rep. Anna Pauilina Luna is currently phoning Rs today to whip against advancing the funding bill:
The Final Passage
On a Sunday Democratic caucus call, senior lawmakers Steny Hoyer and Jim Clyburn voiced support for the funding deal. A CNN source said that if Johnson can clear the rule hurdle, there should be enough Democratic votes for the bill itself to pass. That means once the rule is behind them, Johnson has breathing room.
The exception would be progressive Democrats. Congressional Progressive Caucus chair Greg Casar has pledged to vote no, saying "not another cent to ICE until we stop the chaos." But that bloc might not be enough to prevent the bill’s passing.
A Note on Phrasing
When Do We Think It Will End
Our expectations are currently aligned with the markets.
Here’s what some scenarios might look like…
Tuesday, Feb. 3. Rules Committee passes the bill Monday. Luna votes no on the rule but is isolated. The rule passes Tuesday, final passage follows the same day with some Democratic support. Trump signs promptly. Shutdown lasts about 4 days total.
Wednesday, Feb. 4. Minor procedural delays, the Rules Committee session runs long, floor scheduling slips, or Trump signs Wednesday morning after a late Tuesday vote. Shutdown lasts 5 days.
Thursday–Friday. The rule vote fails on first attempt, Johnson regroups, cuts a side deal with Luna (perhaps a promise of a standalone SAVE Act vote later), and brings it back. Or a surprise second Republican holdout surfaces. Shutdown lasts 6-7 days.
Beyond Friday. The bill gets amended. SAVE Act attached or DHS provisions changed — and bounces back to the Senate where it dies. We're in an extended standoff. Or Luna's coalition is larger than anyone has reported. Shutdown lasts 10+ days.
Where we stand: If things continue as is we’re eyeing a “No” on “more than 4 days.” But given last week’s late night deal between Trump and Schumer, we’re currently waiting for a bit more signal.
So, follow us on X, -- if you haven’t done so already -- to stay up to date on any, well, updates.
