With ~$11,275,212 in volume on Kalshi and ~$13,242,144 in volume on Polymarket for "How long will the Government Shutdown last?" a lot of money is on the line.
We recently wrote on the markets leading up to the shutdown. So, at this point, if you're reading this, you probably know that the shutdown occurred and we're now all trying to figure out how long it will last.
Speaker Mike Johnson said on Fox News Sunday that he plans on getting it done by Tuesday, saying: "We'll get this done by Tuesday, I'm convinced." He added that “[t]he president is leading this."
The positions that are the most in play right now are "More than 4 days" and "More than 5 days"
“More than 3 days” seems like a lock at this point, and -- barring anything unexpected happening -- you can probably still pick up some pennies, but moves like that often aren't worth it.
The Pipeline of the Funding Bill
Because Democrats refused to fast-track it under suspension of the rules, the Senate-passed funding bill has to move through regular order. This involves three sequential gates, each of which the bill must clear:
Rules Committee — Monday 4 PM ET
Floor rule vote — likely Tuesday
Final passage — Tuesday, possibly late (could be delayed depending on how the floor rule vote goes)
Now, the rules committee vote this afternoon is important but probably not decisive.
The committee is 9R-4D.
Assuming that all Democrats vote no, Republicans need 7 of 9 to get it out of the committee.
Two potential R dissenters are Chip Roy (TX) and Ralph Norman (SC). Roy voted against seven procedural rules in the 118th Congress, and both voted against the One Big Beautiful Bill in this committee last July, which still passed 7-6.
However, Roy might not break from party lines. Roy told Fox News Saturday that Democrats were "playing politics" and expressed optimism the bill could pass.
Even if Roy and Norman defect again, this bill passes the Rules Committee 7-6. It’ll only die with a third defection, and none of the other members (Foxx, Fischbach, Houchin, Langworthy, Austin Scott, Griffith, or Brian Jack) have signaled that they intend to do so.
One thing to watch with this…