In December 2025, rumors started to spread that 76-year-old Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito might retire when CNN’s Joan Biskupic wrote:
“Alito [...] has pondered a possible retirement, according to people close to him. But he has not signaled any eagerness to leave.”
In the coming months, building off plenty of circumstantial evidence that we’ll explore below, Kalshi odds for his retirement pushed above 60%, before sharply dropping off in April.
At the time of writing, Kalshi odds are, well, not that…
Polymarket odds for an announcement of Alito’s retirement -- notice the different wording here -- are at 32%.
So, what’s going on here?
There are a range of factors that contributed to the speculation that Alito might retire and some that are still in play.
Let’s start with Alito’s memoir, So Ordered. His memoir, plus the recently released Mollie Hemingway biography, read to some as capstone projects. What’s interesting, however, is that So Ordered is scheduled for an October 6, 2026 release. This is one day after the new Supreme Court term begins, which would make it rather difficult to go on a book tour, a point that was flagged by The Nation’s Elie Mystal.
While it’s not uncommon for a sitting justice to publish a book, when they do, the timing usually allows them to do some sort of a press tour.
Another point supporting this not being a particularly meaningful signal is that sitting justices sell far more books than retired ones, a point David Lat argued in Bloomberg Law. Barrett and Jackson, for example, published bestsellers while on the bench, and Kennedy’s post-retirement memoir flopped.
Then in February 2026, Alito’s wife Martha-Ann Alito expressed eagerness for her husband to retire and an early-2026 Politico interview was described by some analysts as valedictory. And Slate’s Mark Joseph Stern noted that tributes from former clerks for his 20th anniversary had a farewell quality.
In February, Newsweek also reported that Alito had not hired clerks for OT2026. This is in contrast to Justice Thomas, who’d hired six for future terms.
This was a solid signal that resulted in market moves; however, it’s far from a sure sign. Justice Kennedy, for example, hired clerks for OT2018 before retiring six months later. And, around the same time, David Lat at Original Jurisdiction (also published in Bloomberg Law) reported that two of three former Supreme Court clerks he consulted predicted Alito would stay.
Then there was the hospitalization.
On March 20, 2026, Alito was taken to a Philadelphia hospital after falling ill at a Federalist Society dinner. The Supreme Court confirmed he was treated for dehydration and returned home the same night. The incident was not disclosed until CNN broke the story on April 3.
The Hill reported the health scare fueled retirement speculation and caused prediction market prices to tick upward.
Then there was the Senate prep and Trump’s comments. On April 14, Senate Majority Leader Thune told the Washington Examiner that Republicans are “prepared” for a vacancy. Judiciary Chair Grassley floated Senators Ted Cruz and Mike Lee as replacement nominees. The Deseret News reported Lee is a serious contender, and TIME reported that top Trump allies were actively preparing for a vacancy.
The next day, on April 15, Trump told CNN he’s prepared to appoint up to three justices, invoking Ginsburg's refusal to retire as a cautionary tale. And on Fox Business the same day, he called Alito one of the great justices of our time. CNN’s Aaron Blake analyzed these comments as Trump leaning into the replacement narrative. And Newsweek separately reported Trump gave an update on potential vacancies.
However, around the same time -- former Scalia clerk and Distinguished Senior Fellow and Antonin Scalia Chair in Constitutional Studies at the Ethics and Public Policy Center -- Ed Whelan was cited by the New York Times (and summarized on SCOTUSblog April 13) saying thathe doesn’t expect a vacancy this year because Alito would be walking away from many big cases and from the potential to be in the majority.
However, the narrative (and the markets) shifted on April 17th, with multiple major outlets reporting that he would not be retiring this term.
Fox News Digital broke that Alito’s is not expected to step down this term and has already hired all four law clerks for October Term 2026. One source told Fox he's not stepping down, and two other sources independently confirmed.
ABC News soon followed with their own piece. And their sources -- described as people who’ve spoken directly with Alito -- said the justice intends to continue serving "into at least 2027." ABC also reported that Justice Clarence Thomas is expected to stay.
CBS News then confirmed the same night, saying that sources close to Alito say he’s not planning to retire this year.
Following the news on April 17th:
Above the Law published a follow-up on April 20 parsing the differences between the Fox, ABC, and CBS reports. The piece argues that Fox’s original framing -- “not stepping down this term” -- is narrower than the headlines suggested, and that prediction markets (at the time of writing) “still have him above 50 percent to step down before year’s end.” This is the cleanest analysis of why the reporting and the market price aren’t necessarily contradictory. Note: Odds wise this is no longer the case, but it’s how it was quoted in the piece…
A Reuters analysis published April 20 reiterated that Alito and Thomas have given no public indication of planning to leave, and framed Senate control after the November midterms as the determining factor.
On the Megyn Kelly Show the same day, Alito biographer Mollie Hemingway confirmed her sources match the Fox/CBS reporting but floated Chief Justice Roberts as a possible retirement instead. It’s worth noting, however, that this is speculation from someone who just published a flattering book on Alito and is not reporting.
Newsweek refreshed their previously published piece on April 22 with replacement-nominee market data: on Kalshi’s “Who will be the next Supreme Court justice?” market (at the time of the article’s publication), former Solicitor General D. John Sauer led at 16%, followed by DeSantis (15%), Oldham (14%), and Ho (14%).
Where things stand
For the most part, these are hard markets for most to get a genuine edge on. SCOTUS retirement decisions, after all, are inherently opaque
Although Alito hired clerks, which would seem to indicate that he’s staying, there are cases where justices retired soon after staffing up. Also, there are lots of inside sources being quoted, and there seems to be an effort to put a narrative out there that he’s not leaving, essentially reassuring people.
Now, when it comes to resolution, written about in the past, Kalshi and Polymarket have slightly different rules here. And the difference is meaningful.
Kalshi resolves Yes if Alito officially retires before January 1, 2027. That means he'd have to actually leave the bench.
Polymarket resolves Yes if Alito publicly announces his retirement by December 31, 2026. That means he could announce in December that he's retiring effective June 2027 and Polymarket would resolve Yes while Kalshi would resolve to No.
So why haven’t the markets moved more?